where does the predictions of incident cases of various disease come from?

Hello, I have reviewed the video "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZPMmobKnTw" which introduced UKB data and there is a slide (as the screenshot below shown) showing the predicted incident disease in 2027 and 2032. I am wondering where these predictions come from and how they were derived? there is no citation here. Thank you very much!   [Image: Screenshot 2023-12-03 at 08.47.57]

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2 comments

  • Comment author
    Chai Fungtammasan DNAnexus Team

    #CheadleDA UK Biobank Data Analysts ?

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  • Comment author
    Rachael W The helpers that keep the community running smoothly. UKB Community team Data Analyst

    These predictions are rough calculations taken from the observed incidence rates per year since recruitment in UKB for a range of diseases and then projecting numbers based on the difference between UKB age-specific incidence rates and national rates (as, general speaking, the incidence rates for most outcomes are lower in UKB than the national average), so we can get a good estimation of the likely increase in projected numbers. 

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